01
The 3-Month Lie
Average promised duration: 3 months. Actual average duration: 4.7 years.
3 moβ4.7 yr
PREDICTIVE TRACKER
They said temporary. History disagrees.
87% of temporary restrictions outlast their promised duration. For Now maps your specific situation against historical data to reveal your real deadline β the Point of Permanence where temporary becomes the new normal.
Loading historical permanence dataβ¦
The Hollow Promise Pattern
Three patterns institutions use when they say "temporary."
02
The Extension Cascade
73% of temporary measures get extended at least once. 52% get extended three or more times.
03
The Normalization Trap
After 18 months, 91% of affected populations stop resisting. The measure becomes invisible.
Every time you hear "temporary," institutions are banking on you getting used to it.
Your Point of Permanence
Map your specific situation against 200+ historical cases across 40 countries.
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Category
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Promised duration (months)
6mo
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Region (optional)
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Current status
This Pattern Has a Name. And a Record.
Real cases. Real timelines. Real Points of Permanence.
| Restriction | Location | Promised | Actual | Point of Perm. | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emergency internet tax | ππΊ Hungary | 2 years | Still active (8 yrs) | β 22 months | Still active |
| Temporary curfew | πͺπ¬ Egypt | 6 months | 3.5 years | β 7 months | Permanent |
| Fuel standard rollback | πΊπΈ United States | 1 year | Indefinite | β 14 months | Indefinite |
| Border crossing limit | πͺπΊ European Union | 18 months | Still active (6 yrs) | β | Still active |
| Service fee increase | π¬π§ United Kingdom | 12 months | Permanent | β 8 months | Permanent |
| Water rationing | πΏπ¦ South Africa | 90 days | 2.1 years | β 130 days | Permanent |
From Hollow Promise to Strategic Countdown
Three steps that move you from passive waiting to strategic acting.
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Map Your Restriction
Enter the restriction type, promised timeline, and context. We match it against our database of 200+ historical temporary measures across 40 countries.
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2
Find Your Point of Permanence
Our model identifies the milestone where similar restrictions historically stopped being temporary. This is your real deadline β not the one you were told.
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3
Track and Act
Monitor your restriction against its permanence curve. Get alerts as you approach the Point of Permanence. Act before the window closes.
Data sources: Legislative archives across 40 countries, 200+ documented cases from 1970-present, updated quarterly.
The Numbers Behind "Temporary"
Hard data from 200+ historical cases. No opinions. No spin.
0%
of temporary measures outlast their promised end date
0
median days before temporary becomes the new normal
0Γ
times longer the average temporary measure lasts vs. promised
0%
of restrictions extended at least once past promised end
Questions You're Probably Asking
Direct answers to the concerns that brought you here.
Stop waiting for temporary to end. Start counting down to permanence.
Enter your restriction now. Find your Point of Permanence. Get your real deadline before the window closes.
Free to use. No account needed for your first prediction.
β Data from 40 countries
β Updated quarterly
β Methodology transparent